Tomorrow is the monthly update on USDA S/Ds. The big report for the month, to me, is Friday Mar. 31st when quarterly stocks and prospective plantings is released. That said tomorrow seems poised to give a surprise as we see estimates from Brazil continue to climb toward unprecedented productivity and even Argentina finding some increased production numbers. These will surely add to pressure on US exports as time continues and have not only a big head to start the crop year for SA, but also increase the length of the big tail that is already in place. US exports for NC will likely continue to lag unless prices drop further. Spreads are showing some of that fear as the N/X is poised to dip below a 20 cent inverse finally. IF the USDA shows no decrease in carry out OR increases carry out, then we should see the back end of the crop year go to a carry. Basis is weak and honestly on life support. Deliveries: Beans-238, meal-234 and oil-816. No stoppers have been found yet. OI reveals the liquidation in beans and meal continues, but oil is adding contracts. Volume has been light. Look for beans to trade lower today and flirt with breaking support.
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