Soybean Report, 11/16/2016

Wednesday, November 16, 2016


NOPA crushed the expected number, coming in above the highest estimate at 164.6 MB. 160.5 MB was average guess with last year’s record Oct. crush sitting at 158.9 MB. So this was not only significant, but surprisingly strong due to exports and domestic demand. Oil stocks were better than expected, but still low and demand there domestically was strong as well. We may have a bit more demand than expected, IF the domestic demand stays anywhere close to the current values. Expected competition from DDGs apparently has not materialized. Poultry demand will be a key, but swine will hold sway as well in the equation. The chances of a US bean embargo being put into place by China still seems low, but rhetoric after inauguration could change that perspective quickly. That would also alter the balance sheet like a 8.0 earthquake does the nearby landscape. SA weather is looking pretty good as a whole for the next 7-10 days, so planting in Arg. should progress rapidly and Brazil should see good progress on their crop and finish planting for the most part. Another 165 TMT of beans sold to China, as they continue an early crop year buying spree. Beans are holding some gains this a.m. We will see if that can hold through the day with the US$ still moving higher.


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