Soybean Report, 07/05/2016

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

No overnight markets due to the holiday, so with weather and foreign market action it appears we will open lower. Forecasts have more rains and the coverage over the 3-day weekend was extensive and very beneficial. Honestly, in some areas we could easily be hearing about “wet feet” of beans if the heat doesn’t return to evaporate some of the moisture. Crush numbers continue to be record or close, but disappoint on expectations. Apparently hogs, cattle and poultry can eat other proteins at lower values just as well. DDGs seem to be a major culprit in the lowered usage. Bean deliveries continued Friday night at 263 with 6/23 the las trade date taking receipts. Oil had 642 deliveries with 6/30 making it almost current. CFTC numbers were lower as expected. OI continues to slide as well in beans and oil on Fri. but meal ticked up 1K. Low volume day on Friday was expected, but not as low as it turned out to be. Spreads ended the week strong in beans. The US$ is still close to 96 on the index, so no relief on that front. Weather will continue to be a driving force as will expectations on final acreage. The last couple of years have had reduction in acreage by final numbers, but historically we can expect on average a 500K miss. The last 3 years June acreage has missed by 1, 1 and 2 Million acres too high compared to the final. However, the next year they missed by 750K too low. So their record has been worse lately. In the end, I think we see a bigger acreage this year, with moisture and double cropped acres. Look for a lower start to the day and see if technical players are in to support or bail.

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