Soybean Report, 06/14/2016

Tuesday, June 14, 2016


Ratings and plantings surprise as well as an increased acreage number from Informa weighing on prices as we start the day. Crop conditions were up 2% as a whole and the majority of producing states are well above 5-year average. Thus we have little chance in the future to do anything on this front but go lower. Interestingly overnight strength came back into spreads after weakness allowed NQ to trade a carry and NX to go single digit inverted. Basis is still in the tank compared to normal values this time of year. OI drop in July slowed yesterday on the last day of GS. However, we can see a direct correlation between rolls from N to X and the change in OI. Same can be said for meal, but oil did not see the same transfer as OI dropped as specs apparently are exiting rather than eat the carry. One thing we will fight today other than weather, is the US$ strength. Should we see strength in corn or wheat, beans could easily claw their way back to better. Early though should be a struggle to trade positive. Spreads seem to be comfortable at even with a range and inverted at 10 cents into NC with a few cents either side. Oil % has slipped below 29 again across all crush months to Jan 17.


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