Soybean Report, 05/12/2015

Thursday, May 12, 2016


The complex is higher this a.m. Little new input on fundamentals, but most estimates on Argentina are coming in below 57 MMT now and Brazil at 98 give or take 1 MMT. More importantly, exports don’t seem to be dropping much if at all. Timing of them has been pushed back so the tail on SA shipments should bleed into US NC shipments. Demand from China has not diminished with the expected stock sales nor from the slowed economy there. That is actually more important than the lost production in SA. Deliveries are minimal on the next to last trading day as beans were only 82 and oil only 90 contracts. The spreads weakened yesterday in the aftermath day where frenzied and panic buying after the USDA report ran markets to limit up. Settling back some allowed the N/X to relax back around 12 cents inverted. With the current projected carry out stocks, it should be at a carry. Basis would indicate the same. The bean/corn ratio held up toward 2.8 with a 2.77 post yesterday. This may not garner many additional full season acres, but will encourage double crop beans as soon as any wheat comes off the field. It could get a few acres of flooded fields planted if they dry out enough, but that will be negligible in the big picture. The export sales report was a whiff for the complex as only oil, with low expectations, was in range. Beans should struggle early with the miss as old, but even more so new crop were disappointing. NC sales continue to lag bigtime to the last few years.


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