Morning Grain Comments, 05/04/2016

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

soybeans could not avoid their first lower low in seven sessions last night—will yesterday’s la test move high finally hold up? Volume was solid on the decline overnight, with many seeing the worst of the Argentine soy loss estimates in the rearview mirror as conditions dry out there...

Day one of the Wheat Quality Council Kansas Wheat Tour found average northern KS HRWW yields at 47.2 bushels per acre, up from 34.3 bpa on the same route last year and the 41.2 bpa five-year average, as well as the highest first-day figure since 2012. They did find some evidence of diseases (including rust) following record April rains on the 306 fields sampled yesterday. The tour moves into southwest Kansas today, and a final yield estimate for the number-one producing state will be released on Thursday.

Private analysts Informa pegged the U.S. winter wheat crop at 1.405 billion bushels, up from 1.377 bln bu previously. Their World Crop Report showed a 4.5 MMT cut in Argentine soy production, from 59.5 to 55.0 MMT, with BRZ soy down slightly from 100.5 to 100.1 MMT. ARG corn stayed unchanged at 27.5 MMT this month, while BRZ corn fell from 83.7 MMT to 81.0 MMT.

Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry yesterday reported cumulative grain exports from July 1 through April 30 at 7.189 MMT, up from 5.367 MMT a year a go.

A USDA attaché projected Australia’s 2016/17 wheat harvest at 24.0 million tonnes, down slightly from last year’s 24.5 MMT USDA figure.

Analysts a re expecting Statistics Canada to estimate all-wheat stocks as of March 31 at 13.8 MMT on Friday morning, down 24% from last year’s 18.1 MMT and the smallest stockpile in eight years. Canola output a re seen falling 12% year-over-year to 7.3 MMT, versus 8.33 MMT on Ma rch 31, 2015.

CBOT May Deliveries: corn 220 contracts, with next trade date available on 4/30/16; soybeans 728 contracts and 5/2; bean oil 1,329 contracts and 5/3; Chicago wheat 514 & 5/3; KC wheat 286 & 5/3/16.

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