Morning Grain Comments, 05/03/2016

Tuesday, May 03, 2016


Just when you thought the grains were safe, soybeans catch a second wind and surg through April highs with double-digit overnight gains throughout, with OI rebounding yesterday and volume back up overnight...

Algeria bought at lea st 30k tonnes of corn last week from either the U.S. or S.A. (likely from the U.S.), for June 1-15 shipment, at $195/tonne C&F.

Israeli private buyers issued international tenders for up to 120k tonnes of corn and 40k tonnes of feed wheat, a ll optional-origin, for June-Sep shipment.

Private analysts Celeres yesterday cut their Brazilian safrinha corn production forecast by 10 percent, to 52.8 MMT, due to unfavorable crop weather.

An analyst with Argentina’s state weather agency sa id yesterday that April rains cost the country 9 MMT of soybeans—the largest loss estimate thus far.

Brazil’s Trade Min reported April 2016 bean exports at a record 10.1 MMT, up from 8.4 MMT in March and 6.55 MMT last April. Corn exports of 368k tonnes in April were down from 2.02 MMT LM but above 159k tonnes LY.

Yesterday’s USDA Fats & Oils Report showed Ma rch bean crush at 4.99 million tons (166 million bushels), up from 155 mbu in February and a lso above the 165.5 mbu average trade estimate. The monthly Grain Crushings Report pegged U.S. corn used for ethanol in the month of March at 431 million bushels, up 2% from Feb but down 2% from 437.8 mbu a year a go; DDGs produced were 1.920 million tons, up from 1.782 mln a yea r a go.

Nationa l corn planting progress came in at 45% complete a s of Sunday night, up from 30% la t week and the 30% five-year average, but even with last year and behind the 47% average estimate. Corn emergence at 13% was up from 5% LW, 7% LY, and the 8% 5YA. Soybean plantings were right as expected at 8% done, up from 3% LW and the 6% 5YA but behind 10% LY, with spring wheat seeding at 54%, up from 42% LW and the 39% 5YA, but below 69% LY and the 57% average estimate. Winter wheat ratings rose two points this week to double the expected gain, and vs 43% LY and the 41% 5YA.

CBOT May Deliveries: corn zero, beans 178 contracts with next trade date 4/26/16; bean oil 1457 & 5/2; Chi wheat 511 & 5/2; KC wheat 412 & 5/2/16

 

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