Morning Grain Comments, 04/29/2016

Friday, April 29, 2016

Soybean volume is rebounding this morning after a week and a ha lf of volume/OI losses, but values a re range-bound; nearby corn, on the other hand, continues its persistence towards the psychological l $4/bu level...

FranceAgriMer reported a 3% drop in French soft wheat condition ratings this week, to 88% good/excellent; corn planting rose from 11% to 27% complete this week, remaining well behind last sea son’s 69% corn planting pace.

Bunge’s CEO said on a conference call yesterday that Brazilian winter corn production and exports could both drop by 5-10 MMT this yea r due to weather, and that the exports would likely be made up by the U.S. or Ukraine.

A USDA attaché in Kiev pegged Ukraine’s 2016/17 corn production at 27.45 MMT, up 18% from last year’s 23.33 MMT, with exports at 18.5 MMT, up from 14.55 MMT LY. Meanwhile, wheat output is seen down 10% this year to 24.5 MMT (vs 27.33 MMT LY), with exports down 1.6 MMT to 14 MMT.

The International l Gra ins Council yesterday morning raised their 2016/17 world wheat production estimate by 4 million tonnes, to 717 MMT, thanks to increases in Russia and the E.U.; that remains below last year’s 734 MMT global harvest. The IGC also increased ‘16/17 corn output this month, up 5 MMT to 998 MMT—that’s ahead of 973 MMT in ‘15/16. World soybean production is seen unchanged at 319 MMT in ‘16/17, close to 318 MMT in ‘15/16—that number lost 5 MMT this month due to the Argentine harvest.

CBOT May Deliveries: corn zero, soybeans 527 contracts with next trade date 4/14/16; bean oil 660 & 4/5; Chi wheat 1680 & 4/28; KC wheat 1000 & 4/28.


Old-crop corn export sales were the big surprise yesterday at over 85 million bushels, the largest weekly total of this marketing year and the largest single week since mid- January 2015. That also beat the comparable week last year
by over 50 mbu, with cumulative ‘15/16 sales now just 127 mbu behind last year’s pace; inspections and shipments stand 137-138 mbu behind la st year, with the USDA still looking for a 214 mbu entire-year corn export decline.

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