Morning Grain Comments, 04/28/2016

Thursday, April 28, 2016

A dolla r plunge this morning (coming mostly a t the hands of a surprise decision by Japan’s Centra l Bank) is at least underpinning commodity values, but that hasn't stopped corn and beans from trading on the low side; current cool and wet conditions aren’t the most favorable to newly planted crops, but they won’t be overly stressed, and the next planting window is on the way next week. Argentine farmers are getting back into their soybean fields as well, following a disastrous start to harvest there. Overall gra in excitement definitely continues to slowly recede, with recent highs and lows providing nice starting borders for a more rational/fundamental l trade.

Saudi Arabia said today that they’re seeking 550k tonnes of ha rd wheat, for July-August shipment; they la st bought 870k on February 29.

A Reuters report on Argentine flooding yesterday sees a full one-third of ARG soybean farms flooded with 5 MMT of production lost, following heavy harvest ra ins. The B.A. Exchange cut 4 MMT from its soy estimate la st week
to 56 MMT, and INTL FCStone called for 6-8 MMT losses (to 52-54 MMT).

DOE tota l fuel ethanol production fell to its lowest level in nearly a year and the lowest level of the 2015/16 corn marketing year thus far at 927,000 barrels per day last week, down from 939k the week prior and a peak just 1k bpd shy of a million only seven weeks a go. However, it’s still above the same week last year (921k) and a record output for the comparable week, and a similar seasonal production loss (a round –7%) from mid-March through May 1st last year.



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