Morning Grain Comments, 04/27/2016

Wednesday, April 27, 2016


Western hemisphere weather forecasts today are split for the bulls and the bears; U.S. rains are interrupting planting but great aiding Plains wheat and drying up for the corn belt next week, while S.A. rains don’t look as beneficial for stressed BRZ corn but it’s finally drying up for ARG harvest.

South Korea bought 35k tonnes of Australian wheat for Oct-Nov shipment.

Morocco’s Ag Minister announced today that the country would uphold its 30% customs tariff on soft wheat imports until the end of the calendar year, despite a sharp production decline expected this season due to unfavorable weather; production did total a record 11 MMT in 2015.

SovEcon said Russia’s April grain exports would reach a record total for the month at 2.5 million tonnes, taking cumulative 2015/16 (July-June) grain exports to 31.4 MMT by the end of April, already exceeding 2014/15’s full-year
30.8 MMT. SovEcon sees total ‘15/16 exports at 34.5 MMT, including 23.5- 23.8 MMT of wheat; they also estimated ’15/16 corn exports at 5.0 MMT, running at a record pace due to strong sales to Korea, Turkey, and the E.U.

Jordan passed on their tender to buy 100k tonnes of optional-origin wheat yesterday, their sixth cancellation since late 2015 due to tender terms on quality control and payment; they did have three offers presented this time around.

Brazil gave their trading companies initial quotas of 100k tonnes each of tariff -free corn on purchases outside the Mercosur; the max amount for those taxfree non-Mercosur imports (the tax was 6-8%) is a million tonnes.

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) estimated the country’s 2016 corn crop at 7.054 million tonnes, down from 7.1 MMT previously and down 29% from last year’s 9.95 MMT harvest; it was above the average trade estimate for the report (6.7 MMT).

 

Today’s chart is a simple illustration of the average daily trading range of the three major spot CBOT grain contracts, for each month of the last five years. Up until mid-April, corn had seen exactly two days in calendar 2016 with double- digit trading ranges—the days of the January Annual USDA Report and the March 31 Stocks and Acreage Reports. February and March average corn daily ranges at 4-5 cents were the lowest since January through April 2006.

 

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