Morning Grain Comments, 04/25/2016

Monday, April 25, 2016


The feed grains have come back to limit losses overnight, but beans never really recovered from opening weakness, continuing the lateweek collapse; fund money continues to rush out of soybeans after they added nearly an estimated 250k net contracts from March 1 through Thursday’s high

The CME raised initial spec corn margins by 17% to $1,155 per contract (from $990), with beans up 17% as well to $1,540 per contract (from $1,320).

Iraq has issued a tender for their nominal 50k tonnes of wheat, from either the U.S., Canada, or Australia; they last bought 50k from AUS on April 15.

The trade is looking at a 136k-tonne cargo of U.S. corn and speculating that it’s going to Brazil; that would be their largest U.S. corn purchase since 1995.

A USDA attaché on Friday pegged Russia’s 2016/17 wheat crop at 58.0 MMT, 3 MMT below 2015/16, with all grain output at 101.0 MMT, down 2% from 2015/16 but still above the 93.0 MMT 5YA. A Kazakhstan report estimated that country’s 2016/17 wheat crop at 13.0 MMT, down from 13.7 MMT in 2015/16, with exports flat year-over-year at 6.5 MMT.

Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. Cattle on Feed as of April 1 at 100.5% of last year, slightly below the 100.9% trade estimate; March placements of 104.6% were below the 107.4% trade guess, while March marketings at 107.1% of LY beat the 106.7% average trade estimate.

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money traders adding a whopping 117k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (4/19), moving corn from a –146k to under 30k net short; that was about 50k net better than what daily trade estimates were indicating. Trade guesses were much better across the rest of the grain complex, though, with beans winding up adding 36k net in that category, meal +20k, oil –4.7k, Chi
wheat +26.3k, and KC wheat +6.7k net on the week. Meanwhile, producers and merchants dumped over 113k net corn on the week, with beans down over 44k net there, meal –31.3k, oil –7.7k, Chi wheat –24.7k, and KC –5.6k.

 

With a key Crop Progress report coming up this afternoon, the trade will likely be looking for national corn planting to be nearing a week ahead of average—the five-year average pace hits 30% on May 2, compared to 15% today. Some see
Iowa corn planting nearing halfway complete, in reality if not in USDA reporting, which compares to a 5YA of only about 10% as of today. The national 5YA pace goes on to hit 50% on May 9, 70% on May 16, and 85% on May 23.

 

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