Morning Grain Comments, 04/22/2016

Friday, April 22, 2016

Sincere apologies for this one, but the grains: have partied like it was nineteen ninety-nine...but life it just a party and parties weren’t meant to last. Two thousand zero zero party over, oops, out of time. RIP.

FranceAgriMer reported France’s soft wheat ratings down a point this week to 91% good/excellent but still equal to a year ago; 11% of corn was planted by Monday (April 18), up from 4% the week prior but below 47% last year.

Among Argentine soybean production estimates yesterday, the country’s Ag Ministry cut their official figure from 60.9 to 57.6 million tonnes, while the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reduced theirs from 60.0 to 56.0 MMT. Our brokers in Argentina are looking for production in the 52-54 MMT range following informal talks with farmers in the area. Argentine soybean harvested stands at 16% done this week, up just one point in each of the last two weeks, and right at about 30% behind both last year and the average harvesting pace.

Stats Canada estimated all wheat planted acreage at 23.85 million acres yesterday morning, up from the average 23.2 mln trade estimate but still below 24.1 mln ac last year; canola plantings came in at 19.35 million acres, down
from the 20.4 mln ac guess and 20.1 mln last year. Corn and barley acreage beat estimates and last year at 3.5 and 6.8 mln ac, respectively, with soybeans, dry field peas, and oats all coming in shy of trade expectations; however, peas and lentil acreage are slated to exceed last year’s numbers by wide margins.

This morning’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1 at 100.9% of last year, with March placements at 106.4% of last year and marketings at 106.1% of last March.


Corn export sales continued to run strong at 47.4 million bushels this week, up from 44.7 mbu the week prior and 34.1 mbu on the same week last year. Cumulative sales since September 1 have reached 1375 mbu, now less than 180 mbu behind last year’s pace; that compares to a –335 mbu deficit just ten weeks ago, meaning cumulative sales have made up over 150 mbu vs LY since early Feb. The USDA is still looking for a -214 mbu entire-year decline.



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