Morning Grain Comments, 04/21/2016

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Not much left to be said at this point—we continue to move from the remarkable to the unexplainable, so sit back and enjoy the ride (free advice for farmers), and see where the parade ends. Export sales are ahead but impact could be marginal; tomorrow’s CFTC will likely be more interesting...

Japan bought 126k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender as scheduled, including 66k from the U.S., 34k from CAN, and 26k from AUS.

Chinese customs data showed March wheat imports at 209k tonnes, up 37% from last year; none of that came from the U.S., though, with 102k from Australia and the remainder from Canada and Kazakhstan. China imported 575k tonnes of corn in March, up exponentially from LY, with the bulk of that (549k tonnes) coming from Ukraine. DDG imports totaled 373k tonnes in March, up over 50% from March 2015, with ethanol imports up sharply as well to almost 100k cubic meters (26 mln gallons), nearly all from the U.S.

Brazil’s Abiove left their 2015/16 Brazil soy estimate unchanged at 99 MMT.

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to cut their 2016 corn production estimate again Tuesday, down another 5.5% from 7.1 to 6.7 MMT. That’s up from the USDA’s 6.5 MMT, but down from 9.95 MMT LY.

Stats Canada is expected to report all wheat plantings at 23.2 million acres on Thursday, down from 24.1 mln last year, with canola at 20.4 mln ac, up from 20.1 mln in 2015. Corn plantings are seen down slightly at 3.1 mln ac with beans up slightly at 5.5 mln ac, with peas & lentils expected to make a jump in 2016, up around a million each to 4.6 mln and 5.0 mln ac, respectively.

Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1 at 100.9% of last year, with March placements at 106.4% of last year and marketings at 106.1% of last March.


Today’s charts are a world corn production pie chart for the current marketing year, and another with China removed from the equation. China’s production has increased steadily over the past decade but the country has still swung for a net exporter (7.5 MMT of exports per year from ‘97-’06) to importer (nearly 4 MMT per year in the last five years), though the jury is now out on that front going forward. Less China, the U.S. still produces nearly half the world’s crop.



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