Morning Grain Comments, 04/19/2016

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Same story overnight—beans lead the way with strong volume and action, dragging the rest of the grain complex higher along with them. A strong early start for corn planting looks less impressive now, at least according to the government, with a generally wetter pattern having set in.

Japan is looking for 126k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 67k from the U.S., 34k from Canada, and 25k from Australia.

South Korea’s MFG bought 60k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat for October 10 arrival, priced at just under $180/tonne cost plus freight.

Animal feed makers from the Philippines tendered for up to 150k tonnes of feed wheat, from either the Black Sea or E.U., for July-Aug-Sept shipment.

A state researcher in India estimated the country’s 2016 palm oil output at 32.0 MMT, down 4% from last year’s 33.4 MMT production due to El Nino.

SovEcon increased their 2016 Russian grain production estimate from 98 to 103 million tonnes due to better weather, with wheat up from 57 to 59 MMT.

Stats Canada is expected to report all wheat plantings at 23.2 million acres on Thursday, down from 24.1 mln last year, with canola at 20.4 mln ac, up from 20.1 mln in 2015. Corn plantings are seen down slightly at 3.1 mln ac with beans up slightly at 5.5 mln ac, with peas & lentils expected to make a jump in 2016, up around a million each to 4.6 mln and 5.0 mln ac, respectively.

The USDA reported national corn planting progress at 13% complete as of Sunday night, up from 4% last week, 7% last year, and the 8% five-year average. Milo planting only advanced one point on the week to 16%, down from 18% LY and the 21% 5YA, with spring wheat seeding going from 13% to 27% done this week, down from 31% LY but above the 19% 5YA. Winter wheat ratings rose 1% to 57% g/ex, still above 42% both LY and on average, with heading up 8% this week to 12%, vs 13% LY and the 15% 5YA.


The official U.S. corn planting progress number at 13% may have fallen a bit short of trade expectations, and well short of likely more-indicative aggressive trade ideas, but it still stands a full five points ahead of the five-year average pace, and the second-fastest in six years; some of that rapid late-weekend planting pace will likely be “caught up” in what would otherwise be a slower planting week this week. The five-year average will still only be 15% next Monday.


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