Morning Grain Comments, 04/18/2016

Monday, April 18, 2016


We’ve had an awesome opening weather window for corn planting along with timely rains for Plains wheat, but grain strength continues regardless. Friday’s wheat short likely spooked traders there, but it’s still beans that continue to lead the way higher on massive volume/OI, concerned over the ARG crop and attempting to hold serve or better on U.S. acreage...

Ethiopia tendered for 60k tonnes of international milling wheat, in addition to a tender for 70k that closes on Thursday (4/21); they had made a large (499k) wheat purchased on April 4, building up reserves following a serious drought.

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money traders adding 29k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (4/12), very near what daily trade estimates were indicating; they also added 23.7k net soybean contracts, largely as expected. Meal gained 12.9k net in that category while oil lost 11.4k, but the largest surprise was a 45.6k net loss for Chicago wheat, against trade guesses for just an 11k net loss and a record net short in that category. Producers and merchants subsequently dumped nearly 26k net corn on the week, along with a –15.8k beans and –21k meal, while adding 14.2k oil and a sharp 27.9k net Chicago wheat on the week to 4/12.

 

March NOPA crush came in at 156.7 million bushels Friday morning, slightly above the average 156.25 mbu trade guess and up from 146.2 mbu in Feb, but down from 162.8 mbu last March; estimates ranged from 152.9-158.6 mbu.

March NOPA soybean crush at 156.7 million bushels on Friday lost about 6 mbu of ground on last year’s pace thanks to last March’s record 162.8 mbu crush, but it was still the second-highest March figure on record by nearly 3 mbu. Cumulative crush is only 4 mbu behind last year’s Sept-March pace, with the USDA steady at a –3 mbu entireyear total bean crush estimate in their April S&D Report.

 

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