Morning Grain Comments, 04/14/2016

Thursday, April 14, 2016


Grain momentum continued on the open amid massive volume again overnight, but the air escaped the balloon in the morning hours. Beans did post a new move high nonetheless, and the trade will be interested to see if that rally can continue to have legs through rapid early corn planting.

Japan bought 128k tonnes of milling wheat as scheduled in their weekly tender, including 71k from the U.S., 35k from Canada, and 22k from Australia.

South Korean millers bought 25.5k tonnes of U.S. wheat and 45.5k tonnes of Australian wheat for Aug-Sept shipment.

Tunisia bought 100k tonnes of milling wheat and 100k tonnes of feed barley yesterday, all optional-origin, for July-Aug-Sept shipment. The wheat was priced right around $180/tonne C&F with the barley under $159/tonne C&F.

Jordan yesterday re-tendered for 100k tonnes of optional-origin hard milling wheat, after making no purchase in a similar tender on Tuesday.

Strategie Grains cut their E.U. ending soft wheat stocks estimates, down 1.0 MMT in ‘15/16 to 15.6 MMT, and down 1.2 MMT in ‘16/17 to 13.2 MMT.

Private analysts Agr Brazil cut their 2015/16 corn crop estimate by 3.87 MMT this month to 81.2 MMT, due to dry conditions, and warned that their estimate could be cut further in May if the lack of precipitation continues.

A USDA attaché in China estimated 2016/17 corn production for the country at 218.0 MMT, down from 224.6 MMT in 2015/16 due to policy changes.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated that Argentine wheat plantings would rise 25% for 2016/17, to 4.5 million hectares (11.1 million acres), due to the lifting of export restrictions and strong early rains for planting.

March NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in a 156.25 million bushels tomorrow morning, up 7% from February’s 146.2 mbu but down from 162.8 mbu last February; trade estimates range from 152.9-158.6 million bushels.

 

The April USDA S&D Report showed increases in both corn and sorghum use for ethanol—25 million bushel each—with corn now standing 50 mbu above last year’s pace, and sorghum arguably 100 mbu or more ahead of last season’s demand pace. That was followed by a weekly DOE ethanol production figure that tied the marketing-year low at 938k bpd, down 38k from the previous week but still up from 924k bpd on the comparable week last year.

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