Morning Grain Comments, 04/12/2016

Tuesday, April 12, 2016


The grains steadily rose all the way through the overnight session amid massive volume; that’s almost purely a pity bounce for the feed grains, but the bean surge has been convincing, as it’s looking more and more like the trade has at least some concern for the 2016/17 soy balance table...

Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat for May 21-31 shipment this morning.

Japan is looking for 128k tonnes of wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 71k from the U.S., 35k from Canada, and 22k from Australia.

China’s government wants to increase soybean production 60% by 2020, to 19 MMT, vs 12 MMT in 2015; the gain would come at the expense of corn.

France’s farm ministry pegged 2016 soft wheat plantings at 5.24 million hectares (12.95 mln acres), up 1.2% from last year and the largest since 1935.

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2016 grain crop at 53.3 MMT, down 8% from last year due to lower wheat output; that wheat figure at 18.5 MMT is down from 24.8 MMT LY, with corn at 24.7 MMT (vs 23.0 MMT LY).

The USDA pegged national corn planting at 4% in their initial report yesterday, matching the five-year average and up from 1% last year, and above the 2% trade guess. Key southern belt states MO & KS were both ahead of LY and their 5YAs at 24% and 17%, respectively. Winter wheat ratings dropped a surprising three points this week to 56% good/excellent, still ahead of 42% both last year and on average, as #1 state KS lost five points on the week.

 

Today’s charts show paces of U.S. soybean export sales and shipments to China, from Sept 1 through April of last year compared to this marketing year so far. Actual shipments of beans to China had declined for seven straight weeks to last Thursday’s report (as of March 31), from over a million tonnes on February 11 to just 70k tonnes on March 31; bean inspections basically matched that 70k last week (actually 68k) and dropped to just 200 metric tonnes total this week.

 

image


Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

Market Intelligence Free Trial