Morning Grain Comments, 04/11/2016

Monday, April 11, 2016

Happy first planting date for IA & MN farmers! Air and soil temperatures are cold right now but both will skyrocket into the end of this week, opening up an ideal fieldwork and corn planting window through the weekend for most of the belt, with warm and wet forecasts ahead next week...

U.S. wheat actually stands as the lowest-priced offered in Iraq’s nominal 50k tender that closed yesterday, at $238/tonne C&F; a total of 450k tonnes of U.S. wheat was offered, with 250k tonnes offered from AUS (at $250/t) and 150k from Canada (at $259/t). Iraq last bought 100k from CAN in mid-March

South Korea’s MFIG bought 69k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat this morning, at just under $180/tonne C&F, for July-Aug shipment.

Taiwan flour millers bought nearly 110k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat on Friday, for May-June shipment, with prices ranging from $200-231/tonne FOB.

An Argentine biodiesel industry executive said Friday that the country would more than double their required ethanol blend for gasoline next year, following Brazil’s footsteps; they’ll increased the blend from 12% to 26%. Most of that still comes from cane ethanol, with only five corn ethanol plants for now.

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed even more substantial fund selling in corn than the trade was expecting, with a net –59k move on the week leading to a net –175k position overall as of last Tuesday (4/5). Fund activity was much less minor in the rest of the grains. Producers and merchants added 62.3 net corn, along with +4k net beans and +10k meal.

Today’s charts show USDA carryout changes for corn and soybeans, for the April and May S&D reports, since 1991 (along with the average trade guess for tomorrow’s 2016 edition thrown in). The April report has actually produced some wide swings in old-crop corn ending stocks, with a 100+ mbu move either way in six of the last 11 April reports; bean reports clearly favor a stocks reduction in April, with only two carryout increases seen in the last 24 years.

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