Morning Grain Comments, 04/08/2016

Friday, April 08, 2016


Trade estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report indicate that the trade is looking for few surprises this time around, a relatively tame report before next month’s key integration of likely-bearish new-crop numbers into the S&D table; beneficial weather hangs over the market in the meantime.

South Korean millers bought 56k tonnes of U.S. wheat for July-Aug arrival.

Japan bought 137.5k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender as scheduled, including 56k tonnes from the U.S., 60k Canada, and 22k AUS.

Egypt’s GASC bought 60k tonnes of French wheat for May 10-20 at $192/t.

Brazilian government agency Conab yesterday morning cut their 2015/16 soy estimate from 101.2 to 98.98 MMT due to a slight yield drop; meanwhile corn yield rose for a production estimate of 84.66 MMT, vs 83.5 MMT in March.

INTL FCStone Brazil yesterday cut their 2015/16 soybean crop estimate from 98.6 to 97.5 million tonnes , with corn up 400k tonnes vs March to 84.6 MMT

A USDA attaché in Argentine estimated their 2016/17 soybean crop at just 54.0 MMT yesterday, due to a 3% decline in planted acreage next season.


New-crop (2016/17) soybean export sales came in at just 1,500 tonnes this week, a six-week low; save for the 235ktonne sale on the week ending March 10th, new-crop sales have averaged just 17k tonnes over the past ten weeks. Cumulative NC sales stand at 1.755 million tonnes through the first seven months of the prior marketing year, well below any of the previous five years’ paces (which averaged almost 6 MMT at this point), and the slowest since 2009.


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