Corn Report, 04/07/2016

Thursday, April 07, 2016

Corn firmer overnight on continued recovery from the March 31st reports. Adding to underlying support is end user demand despite light farmer sales. Mississippi and Alabama significantly behind normal planting pace and may see some switching of corn to soybeans. 6-10 day weather forecasts continue the active weather pattern, wetter and cooler than normal. Also lending some underlying support was a reputable weather forecast for warmer and dryer July/August for the Midwest. May/July now trading only 2 3/4 cents on nearby demand and lack of stocks along the delivery system. Another indirect factor being the soybean/corn ratio of a historically high 2.50/1 keeping corn supported as soy oil (and soybeans) rallies due to global vegetable oil shortage. US ethanol production slipping for the 3rd consecutive week, to less than 980,000 bpd, yet the year-to-date production running well above last year implying additional corn usage. Yearly US corn ground for ethanol calculated at nearly 85 mbu more than last year, however, sorghum likely filling the gap, as Chinese imports of US sorghum (corn and DDG’s) come to a halt. Technically, May futures are up against resistance at 3.60 as of this writing, with initial support at 3.54. On a monthly long-term chart, nearby May corn was unable to break the pivotal 3.50 area on bearish fundamentals last week.

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