Morning Grain Comments, 03/29/2016

Tuesday, March 29, 2016


Front-month May soybean oil was the volume and price leader in the overnight session, if that gives any idea of its grain market influence right now; wheat has its own weather issues domestically, if not globally...

Iraq has issued an international tender for a nominal 50k tonnes of wheat.

Ethiopia’s lowest offer in their tender for 499k tonnes of wheat for May-June- July delivery came in at $195/tonne C&F (offers ranged up to $211/t C&F).

Russia’s Ag Minister said today that 2016 grain production could reach 104 million tonnes “given favorable weather”; that’s in contrast to SovEcon who last week cut their ‘16 harvest outlook from 100-105 to 95-100 MMT.

A Brazilian poultry processor bought 90k tonnes of Argentine corn for April- May shipment, in order to guarantee supplies until the country’s second corn crop starts coming in more towards June; BRZ traders have estimated that importers could buy as much as 250k tonnes of ARG corn by May-June.

A Chinese state-owned TV station announced that the country would end its nine-year old corn stockpiling scheme, instead directly subsidizing farmers; there has been no official announcement on this, though government officials have been hinting for months at big changes to China’s state corn price policy

State NASS reports yesterday afternoon found Kansas winter wheat rated at 56% good/excellent, down a point from last week, with jointing at 30%, versus 20% the previous week and the 16% five-year average. CO winter wheat rose 8% to 51% g/ex, still down from 58% LY; TX added one point to 48% g/ ex, while OK was unchanged this week at 63% g/ex, with jointing at 45% done—up from 38% the previous week but behind the 52% 5YA pace.

 

Corn, soybean, and wheat export inspections all fell weekover- week (to 38.5, 20.9, and 12.0 million bushels, respectively), with the combined inspections tally of the three at 69.3 mbu. That was the first time that figure came in under 70 mbu since late September, and down from an export peak just shy of 137 mbu in late October, though still a few million bushels above the comparable week last season.

 

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