Morning Grain Comments, 03/24/2016

Thursday, March 24, 2016


Soybeans split the bulk of the overnight trade volume with corn this time around, but they’ve led the decline in the morning hours; export sales numbers are expected to decline a bit from last week, as the South American campaign benefits from ideal weather and export shipments pick up

Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat for April 25-May 5 shipment today

Jordan has issued an international tender for 100k tonnes of optional-origin hard milling wheat for Sept-Oct; they made no purchase in a tender Tuesday.

Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of U.S. corn for May-June shipment from the Gulf or Sept shipment from the PNW, selected over ARG and BRZ corn.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry put their first forecast of the country’s total 2015/16 corn crop at a massive 37.0 million tonnes yesterday, up from the prior record 33.8 MMT in ‘14/15; soy output was seen at 60.9 MMT vs 61.4 MMT LY.

A Reuters poll found expectations for Wednesday’s South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) corn production figure at 6.77 million tonnes, down 7% from last month’s 7.255 MMT estimate, and down 32% from last season.

The European Union granted export licenses for 1.055 million tonnes of soft wheat this week, the second-highest volume so far in the 2015/16 (July-June) season; cumulative exports stand at 21.2 MMT, down 13% from last year’s pace.  Cumulative corn imports of 10.3 MMT are up nearly 50% versus LY.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Hogs & Pigs Report is expected to show all U.S. hogs as of March 1 at 67.6 million head, or 100.3% of last year; breeding hogs are seen at 100.6% of last year, with marketings at 100.3% of LY.

 

Total U.S. fuel ethanol output fell only slightly this week to 995,000 barrels per day, according to the DOE; that was down from 999k bpd last week but still well above 953k bpd on the comparable week last year. Cumulative output since Sept 1 continues to slowly rise, now at 974k bpd, up around 25k bpd from both last year’s pace and final numbers— plenty of cushion for a small YTY corn use for ethanol rise plus 75-100 mbu of sorghum used, and then some...

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