Morning Grain Comments, 03/11/2016

Friday, March 11, 2016


Beans were a complex leader overnight with all but the May peaking above $9/bu; export prospects have looked bleak all marketing year but are starting to look up for the last half of the season, with a weaker USD, Chinese demand still strong, and Brazil having their usual loading issues.

Feed makers in the Philippines have issued an international tender for 90,400 tonnes of soybean meal from either the U.S. or Argentina.

Brazilian soybean export prices reportedly have increased rapidly over the past week—by 10-13 cents/bushel— as port lineups expanded during harvest.

Grain lobby Coceral pegged E.U. 2016 soft wheat at 145.2 MMT, down from a record 150.3 MMT in 2015, with corn up from 58.5 to 63.2 MMT in 2016.

FranceAgriMer pegged the French wheat crop condition at 93% good/ excellent this week, down a point from last week but still above 91% on the comparable date last year, and the highest number in the last five seasons. 

Kazakhstan has exported 5.931 MMT of grain since July 1, up from the 4.572 MMT pace of a year ago, with total shipments expected at 7.5 MMT in ‘15/16

The European Union granted export licenses for 991k tonnes of soft wheat this week, the third-largest so far this marketing year; cumulative exports since July 1 stand at 19.4 MMT, still down 16% from last year’s pace. Corn imports hit 229k tonnes this week to stand at 9.9 MMT total, up 53% vs LY.

In their monthly forecast yesterday morning, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said there was a 50% likelihood that La Nina could develop “in the coming months”, by spring or early summer.

 

Soybean export sales were fairly steady this week at 17.2 million bushels, in line with the average sales since the beginning of February and double-digits (in mbu) ahead of the same week last year; meanwhile, export shipments continue to run extremely strong, at 41.7 mbu this week, cutting the cumulative year-to-year shipments deficit to only an even 100 mbu. We’d only have to ship 9.0 mbu per week for the last half of the marketing year to meet the USDA YTY est.

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