Morning Grain Comments, 03/10/2016

Thursday, March 10, 2016


Beans have actually showed the most signs of life post-S&D, despite arguably the most bearish news over the past 24 hours; take that for what it’s worth, though, with rallies quickly squashed and volume lethargic...

Iraq yesterday cancelled an international tender for at least 50k tonnes of hard wheat, with no purchase made—Canadian wheat had the lowest offer in.

Tunisia has issued an international tender for 67k tonnes of soft milling wheat and 25k tonnes of feed barley, closing tomorrow.

Brazil’s Conab raised their 2015/16 soybean production estimate from 100.9 to 101.2 MMT this month due to higher planted area and yields, with corn output up from 83.3 MMT in Feb to 83.5 MMT this month.

Argentina’s Rosario Exchange increased their 2015/16 soy estimate from 58.5 to 59.0 MMT due to higher yields, with corn up from 24.2 to 24.5 MMT.

The head of China’s state-owned food processor COFCO today proposed to the government that state corn reserves (estimated at a massive 250 MMT at the end of February) be released as soon as possible, as the scheme has cut down domestic supplies and pushed up local prices.

 

The trade was looking for steady-to-higher global 2015/16 carryout figures in corn, beans, and wheat in yesterday’s USDA S&D update, but instead got 1.3-1.8 MMT declines in all three crops. However, for corn that still means a fifth straight annual stocks gain (totaling nearly +80 MMT), a fourth straight build for world beans (totaling over 25 MMT), and a third straight increase for wheat (totaling more than a +60 MMT just since the 2012/13 season).

 

image


Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

Market Intelligence Free Trial