Morning Grain Comments, 03/04/2016

Friday, March 04, 2016

Grain action was especially positive with stronger volume overnight; the release of USDA trade estimates showed no bullish expectations once again, but the market remains concerned over U.S. wheat weather.

Turkey bought 25,000 tonnes of corn from Russia today, at $174/tonne C&F.

French farm office FranceAgriMer pegged the country’s soft wheat crop at 94% good/excellent this week, unchanged from last week but above 91% on the same date last year, with growth progress well ahead of last year’s pace as well. Spring barley planting rose from 6% to 14% done this week, vs 24% LY

A Russian Ag official yesterday said the country could export 34 MMT of grain in 2015/16 (July-June), up from the official 33 MMT government forecast, thanks to a record-breaking shipment pace thru Feb. Wheat exports stand at 19.1 MMT and are seen reaching as high as a record 24.3 MMT through June. Grain exports totaled 30 MMT in 2014/15, with wheat at 22.0 MMT.


Corn export sales hit a four-week high at 43.2 mbu this week, up from 36.8 mbu the prior week and over 10 mbu ahead of the comparable week last year; that still leaves cumulative sales (at 1091 mbu) 312 mbu behind last year’s pace. Shipments were fairly steady this week at 31.1 mbu but that compared to 54.3 mbu on the same week LY; actual shipments continue to lose ground vs LY, now nearly 160 mbu behind last year’s pace through half the marketing year



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