Morning Grain Comments, 02/26/2016

Friday, February 26, 2016


The grains were pretty steady through the overnight session and following the USDA Ag Forum full balance tables release this morning. Highlights: half a milling acres switched from corn to soy compared to their initial baseline/outlook figures, with the lowest wheat area since 1970. Solid (not record) yields ensure a more-than-adequate supply, with large corn for feed and soybean export numbers allowing the government to project carryouts under the magic 2 billion (corn) and 500 million (bean) bushel marks.

Egypt’s GASC yesterday bought 300k tonnes of wheat for March 26-April 4 shipment, at an average price of just over $185/tonne C&F; that include 120k from Romania, and 60k each from Argentina, France, and Ukraine.

Private analysts Agroconsult raised their 2015/16 Brazilian soybean production estimate after field checks this month, from 99.2 to 101.6 MMT; they also raised total corn production from 87.3 MMT versus 85.6 MMT in Jan.

Brazil’s Cereals Export Association expects the country’s corn exports at 28 million tonnes in calendar 2016, versus the 30.75 MMT record from 2015.

The Argentine Ag Ministry increased their 2015/16 planted corn acreage estimate from 5.69 to 5.88 million hectares (14.5 mln acres) this month.

The International Grains Council increased their 2015/16 global corn production estimate by a full 10 MMT this month, to 969 MMT; that’s still down from 1.016 billion tonnes last year. Ending gain stocks were also up 10 MMT
to 465 MMT, the largest stockpile in almost 30 years. World corn production and stocks are seen rising slightly in the 2016/17 marketing year as well.

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) pegged the country’s 2016 corn crop at 7.255 MMT, down from 7.44 MMT last month and 9.95 MMTlast year, though well above the average 6.87 MMT trade estimate.

 

The USDA shifted a half-million acres from corn to soybeans in their Ag Forum estimates, compared to previous baseline/economic figures; that still left corn a bit above trade expectations with beans a bit below, and wheat at an all-time low 51.0 million acres planted in 2016. Acreage of those three major crops is seen at a five-year low of 223.5 mln, down over 7 mln from the 2014 peak, with the total of the 8 largest crops also at a 5-year low, down 8.5 mln vs ‘14

 

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