Morning Grain Comments, 02/25/2015

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Chicago wheat has been clawing back since yesterday morning’s fresh contract and multi-year spot lows, but it’s corn and beans that will  garner the bulk of the trade’s attention today as Ag Forum numbers start to trickle out, not to mention regular export sales numbers and a fresh South African corn update. There’s little chance for any bullish S&D numbers today but the trade sure seems to be all fishing out of the same side of the boat...

Egypt’s GASC is back in for wheat today for March 26-April 4 shipment; they did get more offers (7) this time, compared to four or less in previous tenders this month, with the lowest coming in at $175/tonne FOB from Argentina. Results are expected later this morning.

Taiwan bought 101k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat for April-May shipment.

Buyers from the Philippines purchased around 110k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat yesterday, at around $180-182.50/tonne C&F for May-June.

Indonesia announced that they would only import about 200k tonnes of corn in the first quarter of 2016, down from previous estimates for 600k tonnes.

A Reuters poll of grain analysts ahead of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum found 2016 U.S. corn plantings at 89.65 million acres, up from 88.0 mln in 2015 but below the USDA’s initial 90.5 mln ac figure; estimates ranged from 88.5-91.0
mln ac. Soybean acreage was seen at 83.3 mln, up from 82.65 mln LY and the 82.0 mln ac government working number, with guesses there ranging from 82.0-85.2 mln ac. All wheat planted area came in at 52.4 mln ac, below 54.64
mln LY and the 53.0 mln ac USDA working estimate, with the trade range there spanning from 51.15 to 56.0 million acres.


Total DOE fuel ethanol production rose for a third straight week to 994k barrels per day, up from 975k bpd the previous week and well above 947k bpd on the comparable week last year. Cumulative output since September 1 now stands at 971k bpd, up 20-25k bpd from last year’s pace and last year’s final figure; that jives well with a USDA forecast that sees corn use for ethanol slightly above last year and sorghum use for ethanol adding on another 75-100 million bu.



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