Morning Grain Comments, 02/05/2016

Friday, February 05, 2016

The soybean complex registered a steady incline across the overnight session, but that was only to save beans from falling too far below its nice comfy recent technical range after an ugly mid-week. Argentine rains do need to verify over the weekend to keep S.A. crop prospects unhindered...

Egypt’s GASC is again looking for wheat for March 2-11 shipment today; they did get four offers this time (with the lowest coming in under $187/tonne FOB from France) despite uncertainty over their ergot fungus policies.

Algeria actually bought 840k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in a tender this week, above the earlier-reported 450-500k tonnes; traders still expect the bulk of the wheat to come from France, with some also from the U.K.

A USDA attache in Buenos Aires pegged the 2015/16 Argentine soybean crop at 58.5 MMT, up from the official 57.0 MMT USDA Jan S&D figure.

Statistics Canada yesterday reported the country’s all-wheat stocks as of December 31 at 20.7 million tonnes, below the average 21.8 MMT estimate, and down 19% from last year to an eight-year low. Meanwhile, Canadian canola stocks came in at 12.1 MMT, above the 11.5 MMT trade guess, though still down 4% from last year and the smallest stockpile in three years.

The E.U. granted export licenses for 786k tonnes of soft wheat this week, bringing the cumulative total since July 1 to 15.6 MMT—down 15% from last year’s pace. Weekly corn imports of 376k tonnes took cumulative ’15/16 imports there to 8.7 MMT, up 62% from last season’s pace.


Weekly soybean export sales fell well short of expectations— and short of even a net zero—at a net 1.6 million bushel cancellation on the week ending Jan 28. That was the earliest a net cancellation has occurred in the marketing year in 12 years. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 1492 mbu, now down over 177 mbu from last year’s pace and 83 mbu behind the prior year’s pace. Additional sales in that ‘13/14 season added on only 110 million more bushels.



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