Morning Grain Comments, 02/02/2016

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Corn (with fresh highs) and beans showed a little bit of life early this morning but were quickly shut down; wheat has the most fundamental news to trade at this point, but almost none of it is positive as usual...

Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of U.S. corn, for April/May, at just over $188/tonne C&F; they had last rejected all offers for 130k tonnes on Jan 13.

Egpyt’s GASC was looking for wheat for March 2-11 shipment this morning, but they cancelled it after receiving no offers from suppliers—the ergot fungus rejections recently has uncertainty reigning among exporters…

Kazakhstan’s grain exports totaled 4.942 MMT from July through Jan, up from 3.981 MMT last year; total ‘15/16 exports are expected at 7.5 MMT, up from 6.444 MMT in ‘14/15 but below 8.68 MMT in ‘13/14.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported January soybean exports at 394k tonnes, down from 731k tonnes in December but still above just 85k tonnes last January; corn exports fell from 6.3 MMT in Dec to 4.5 MMT in Jan, though that remained well above last year’s 3.2 MMT total. Ethanol exports of 120 million liters in Jan fell below 287 mln last month and 154 mln last year.

Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Fats & Oils report showed December U.S. soybean crush at 5.01 million tons, up from 4.97 mln in Nov; that translates to 167.0 million bushels, just below the average analysts’ estimate at 167.3 mbu. The Dec NOPA figure of 157.7 mbu represented 94.4% of that total, on the high side of recent months’ numbers around 94%. In its Grain Crushings Report, the government pegged December corn use for alcohol at 444.5 million bushels, above 435.0 mbu in Nov but below 455.9 mbu a year ago. Sorghum used for ethanol in Dec rose to 7.6 mln cwt, up from 5.6 mln last month and 889k cwt a year ago. 1.973 MMT of DDGs were produced in December, down from 1.935 MMT last month but up from 1.920 MMT last year.

State NASS reports yesterday afternoon showed improved monthly winter wheat ratings in Kansas (up a point to 55% g/ex) and Illinois (up 7% to 65% g/ex), with lower numbers elsewhere (OK down 3% to 74%, NE down 3% to 56%, SD down 4% to 67%, TX down 6% on the week to 49% good/excellent)


Soybean export inspections fell only slightly this week, from 44.0 to 42.4 million bushels; however, that was up against a comparable nearly 62.5 mbu total from last year, meaning cumulative bean inspections of 1204.5 mbu are now over 172 mbu behind last year’s pace, versus a USDA forecast for a 153-mbu entire-year decline. Inspections are only 44 mbu ahead of the pace from two years ago (’13/14), when final inspections came in at just 1595 million bushels.



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