Morning Grain Comments, 02/01/2016

Monday, February 01, 2016

Those surprising CFTC results hit the corn market early last night and crude is hitting it late; those brief rallies continue to have a tough time sustaining any momentum in the current fundamental environment...

Israeli private buyers purchased up to 105k tonnes of corn, 45k tonnes of feed wheat, and 10k tonnes of milo, all optional-origin, for March-June delivery.

Egypt said they had rejected a 63k-tonne shipment of French wheat which had arrived in December, due to the ergot fungus detected in the lot...

Kazakhstan reported the country’s grain harvest at 18.7 MMT (net weight) in 2015, up from 17.2 MMT in 2014, with wheat at 13.7 MMT vs 13 MMT LY.

Private analysts AgRural estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 4% harvested on Friday, behind last year’s 6% but right in line with the 5YA figure.

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money traders adding over 70k net corn contracts on the week ending Tuesday (1/26) compared to trade expectations for just a 3k net gain, and taking their corn net
short from over 160k to under 92k net. Chi wheat added nearly 20k net there, compared to estimates for just an 8k net gain. Producers & merchants dumped over 47k net corn on the week, with Chi wheat down over 13k net there.

Friday afternoon’s semi-annual USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed a total of 91.988 million head of cattle and calves in the U.S. as of January 1, or 103.2% of the year-ago total; that was well above the average 101.8% trade guess, as well as the entire trade estimate range from 101.1-102.3%


Soybean export sales fell to one of their lowest weekly figures in the marketing year so far at just 23.8 million bushels for the old crop, down for the second straight week and below the comparable 30+ mbu total from last year. Cumulative sales now stand nearly 163 mbu behind last year’s pace. Shipments were better at 43.8 mbu last week but that figure lost ground vs LY for the third straight week, now standing over 115 mbu behind last season’s shipment pace.



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