Morning Grain Comments, 01/21/2016

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Corn is still bucking the trend (or lack thereof) this morning with a slow but steady rally to fresh one-month highs—if it’s purely a shortcovering rise, it’s a much more lasting one than we’ve seen in the last three months. The rest of the grains remain mired on the charts, with wheat once again waiting for GASC results this morning to see just how uncompetitive U.S. supplies still are on the world export market.

Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat today for February 20-March 1 delivery; the lowest offer (sans freight) came in at just under $182/tonne FOB from France.

South Korean millers bought 23k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat overnight, for April 20-May 20 delivery, with prices ranging from $208-352/tonne FOB.

Strategie Grains estimated an increase in European Union soft wheat exports next season, pegging them at 28.9 million tonnes for 2016/17 in their first official estimate. That would be up from 28.1 MMT in ‘15/16, mostly due to a
lower exportable surplus in the Black Sea. Ending stocks for the E.U. in ‘16/17 were pegged at 14.2 MMT, down from 16.9 MMT this season, thanks to a 7-MMT decline in production in 2016. Corn output came in at 64.6 MMT
for 2016, down 300k tonnes from Strategie’s previous estimate, but still up 13% from the drought-affected 2015 harvest.

The Baltic Dry Freight Index fell to yet another record low yesterday, its 12thstraight such mark, down another five points (-1.4%) to 358 points.

Tomorrow afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle as of January 1 at 99.0% of last year, or 10.52 million head; December placements are estimated at 95.6% of last year, with Dec marketings seen at 101.9% of last year’s figure.


Today’s chart is an updated on average daily range withcalendar 2015 complete; spot corn wound up trading an average range of 7 3/4 cents in 2015, the lowest since 2006, though at just over 2% of the daily mean price, that percentage is the lowest since 2003. So far in 2016, that corn range stands at less than 6 1/2 cents. Same for beans—the absolute average range at 16 cents was the lowest since 2006, and the 1.7% of the daily mean was the lowest since 2001


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