Morning Grain Comments, 01/20/2016

Wednesday, January 20, 2016


All factors considered, it’s impressive for corn to be mostly in the green this morning; the rest of the grains are taking profits, while crude is still in the dumps, global equities markets suffer, etc, etc. The soy complex is bringing up the rear today following Informa’s strong bean plantings estimate yesterday—that additional record planted acreage estimate needs to be taken with a grain of salt as always, especially with the way soybean revenues are penciling out for the farmer at this point, but if anywhere near recognized, that type of acreage would further send the bean S&D table down the drain...

South Korean corn processors bought around 50k tonnes of U.S. corn this morning, for May 10 arrival, at just under $190/tonne C&F. The country’s largest feedmaker (NOFI) purchased 69k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat for late June arrival, priced at $181/tonne C&F.

Brazilian analysts AgroConsult yesterday cut their 2015/16 soybean production estimate from 100.6 to 99.2 million tonnes; they also cut total ‘15/16 corn output from 85.6 MMT, compared to 88.5 MMT in October.

Private analysts Informa yesterday pegged 2016 U.S. corn planted acreage at 88.9 million, down slightly from their December estimate and 1.6 mln below the USDA baseline, but still 870k above 2015; soybeans were pegged at 85.2 mln ac, up 693k from last month, now 2.6 mln above LY, and 3.2 mln above the initial government figure. All wheat area came in at 51.1 mln ac, down 2.9 mln from last month (going along with the USDA’s winter wheat seedings report) and 3.5 mln below last season.

 

Today’s chart shows long-term U.S. planted crop acreage through 2015, along with Informa’s latest 2016 plantings estimates; the private analyst is unsurprisingly much more optimistic on soybean plantings than the government, at least at this point, estimating a record 85.2-million-acre soybean planting figure. That would be up 2.6 mln vs LY, up over ten million from just five years ago (75.05 mln in ‘11), and up over 20 mln from the 2007 dip (64.7 mln ac).

 

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