Morning Grain Comments, 01/15/2016

Friday, January 15, 2016


The grains were under pressure right from the open last night and put up some decent volume totals; it’s interesting to see the feed grains holding up the best with morning rebounds while beans suffer, despite the two strongest outside influences today probably being Paris wheat (new contract lows) and definitely crude (crashing through $30/bbl to new 12+ year lows).

Kazakhstan expects to export 7.5 million tonnes of grain in 2015/16, up from 7.0 MMT estimated previously and 6.444 MMT in 2014/15, though still below ‘13/14 levels of 8.68 MMT.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated 2015/16 Argentine corn plantings at 3.1 million hectares (7.66 mln acres), up from 2.85 mln ha previously.

The European Union granted export licenses for 745k tonnes of soft wheat this week, bringing the cumulative total since July 1 to 13.5 MMT, down from last year’s 15.3 MMT pace; corn exports stand at 7.2 MMT so far in 2015/16, up from last year’s 5.0 MMT pace.

 

This morning’s December NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 157.8 million bushels, up from 156.1 mbu in November but below 165.4 mbu last December. Trade estimates range from 153.7-161.0 million bushels.

Jan CBOT deliveries: soybean oil 121 contracts, with next trade date 1/14/16; beans 57 contracts and 1/8; meal 121 contracts and 1/14/16.

 

Soybean export sales increased by almost half a million tonnes (18 million bushels) week-over-week, with shipments coming in at nearly 50 mbu; however, that shipment total was 14 mbu short of the comparable week last year, with cumulative shipments now 105 mbu behind last year’s pace. The USDA cut their entire-year soybean export estimate by 25 mbu this month (half of corn’s 50 mbu cut) and now expect bean exports to fall by 153 mbu in 2015/16.

 

image


Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

Market Intelligence Free Trial