Morning Grain Comments, 01/14/2016

Thursday, January 14, 2016


The grain markets were on the run right from the start overnight, on a generally bearish commodity (and investing) environment in general; the U.S. dollar and crude interestingly reversed course in the evening/ early morning hours but the grains chose not to follow. It’s not a good sign that those “bullish” USDA reports were good for only a 15-20 cent bounce— the grains are having a tough time building any more momentum than that...

Japan’s Ag Ministry bought a total of 141k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular tender this week, including 62k U.S., 49k Canada, and 30k Australia.

The Rosario grains exchange estimated the 2015/16 Argentine corn crop at 23.8 MMT, up from its previous 20.2 MMT forecast; soybean and wheat production remained steady this month at 55.0 and 9.6 MMT, respectively.

A USDA attaché in Ukraine pegged the country’s 2015/16 grain harvest at 60.25 MMT, up slightly from last month, with grain exports up nearly 2% this month as well at 34.7 MMT. Wheat production was unchanged at 27.0 MMT with corn output up half a million tonnes to 23.5 MMT.

The South African Weather Service officially reported 2015 as the driest single year since records began in 1904, with rains about one-third below normal

Tomorrow morning’s December NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 157.8 million bushels, up from 156.1 mbu in November but below 165.4 mbu last December. Trade estimates range from 153.7-161.0 million bushels.

Jan CBOT deliveries: soybean oil 141 contracts, with next trade date 1/13/16; soybeans 36 contracts and 1/5/16.

 

Total U.S. fuel ethanol production continues to run at exceptional rates, rising for the fourth straight week on the seven days ending Jan 8 to 1.003 million barrels per day— the second-best week ever and the third time output has equaled the one-million mark or better (all coming in the last two months). Cumulative output since 9/1 is over 970k bpd, up over 30k from last year’s pace and 20k above last year’s final (100-150 mln bu more corn ground annually).

 

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