Morning Grain Comments, 01/13/2016

Wednesday, January 13, 2016


Corn garnered the largest volume overnight, beans the widest trading range, but neither impressed with their post-USDA rally follow-up; record Chinese bean import data isn't even seen by the trade as overly bullish anymore, with Brazil now producing and importing the additional share...

India is looking for around 200k tonnes of corn, non-GMO and from eastern Europe and the Black Sea—the lowest offer is reportedly from Ukraine.

Taiwan’s MFIG rejected all offers in a tender for up to 130k tonnes of corn, though the country’s millers bought 89k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Feb-March

South Korean millers bought 81k tonnes of Australian wheat for June arrival.

China soy imports had their second-highest month ever at 9.12 MMT in Dec, up 7% vs LY, with 2015 imports at a record 81.7 MMT, up 14% vs 2014.

FranceAgriMer increased their 2015/16 French ending wheat stocks estimate to 5.8 million tonnes, up from 5.2 MMT last month and 2.5 MMT last year; they cut export forecasts for both inside and outside the E.U., to 7.0 and 11.3 MMT, respectively. Corn carryout was increased from 2.8 to 2.9 MMT.

The Baltic Dry Freight Index hit another new all-time low at 402 points yesterday, down from 415 points on Monday and 1222 points as recently as Aug.

Private analysts Celeres cut their 2015/16 Brazilian soybean estimate from 101.9 to 99.8 MMT yesterday morning—this came slightly after Conab cut their official estimate as well, though only from 102.5 to 102.1 MMT.

Jan CBOT deliveries: soybean oil 115 contracts, with next trade date available 1/11/16; soybeans 92 contracts and 12/31/15.

 

The trade was expecting BIG CROPS TO GET BIGGER in yesterday’s January S&D update/annual Crop Production report, but instead they went the other way with yields down 0.9 bpa in corn and 0.3 bpa in beans, and production just over 50 mbu lower each. It was the way corn got there that was particularly surprising, with Iowa up 3 bpa from Nov and Illinois up 7 bpa from Nov, and 11 (!) states (mostly fringe states) down anywhere from -5 to –16 bpa...

 

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