Morning Grain Comments, 01/08/2016

Friday, January 08, 2016


The bulls are once again desperately hoping that a brief dip below $3.50 for corn will be all the nosedive the market can muster, thanks to that near-record net fund short; that area has held up repeatedly over the last 7 -8 months, but rallies haven't exactly been inspiring over that span either...

South Korean millers bought 83,200 tonnes of milling wheat from the U.S. (53k tonnes) and Canada (30k) for April-May delivery; the country’s Agro- Fisheries & Food Trade Corp bought 50k tonnes of U.S. beans for 2017.

A Chinese think-tank pegged ‘15/16 soy imports at 80.0 MMT, up 2% vs LY.

India’s farm minister announced the country will start up their first major crop insurance plan for the fiscal year starting April 1, due to unseasonal rains and two straight years of droughts that have abused the agricultural sector.

Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry reported cumulative imports from July 1 through Dec 31 at 4.192 MMT, up from 3.548 MMT over the same span last season.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday raised their 2015/16 Argentine wheat production estimate to 10.1 MMT, up from 9.5 MMT previously.

A USDA attaché in Brazil yesterday cut their 2015/16 soybean estimate to 98.0 MMT, below the 100.0 MMT USDA December figure; the post’s 55.0 MMT export estimate was steady this month, below the USDA’s 57.0 MMT.

 

Wheat export sales were ugly this week at just 2.8 million bushels, tying a marketing-year low, and leaving cumulative
sales at just over 580 million bushels since June 1, which is nearly 105 mbu behind last year’s pace already. It’s almost hard to believe that as recently as July, the USDA was expecting a 95-mbu year-to-year wheat export increase (to 950 mbu in ‘15/16), and now are still too optimistic at a –54 mbu YTY decline (to just 800 mbu overall).

 

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