Morning Grain Comments, 01/07/2016

Thursday, January 07, 2016


No surprise that the trade isn’t looking for anything supportive on Tuesday—they expect the bulls to go wanting yet again. Outside markets continue to tumble, with crude lower and stocks tanking across the globe.

The U.N. FAO’s food price index fell 1% to 154.1 points in Dec, compared to 155.6 points in Nov; 2015 marked the index’s fourth straight annual decline.

Brazilian Trade data showed 322k tonnes of corn exported to South Africa in 2015—compared to none in 2014—with three more cargoes on the way soon.

INTL FCStone Brazil pegged the country’s 2015/16 soybean crop at 97.8 MMT this month, down from 98.8 MMT in December.

Growers associations in both Mato Grosso and Parana reported the start of the soy harvest this week, with both at 1% done or less; that’s behind normal pace in Mato Grosso, with more harvesting expected in late Jan-early Feb. 43% of that state’s crop was seen in “bad” or “terrible” condition last month.

In their Jan World Crop Report yesterday, Informa estimated 2015 Argentine corn production at 22.0 MMT, up one million from last month, though still well below the USDA’s current 25.6 MMT figure. ARG wheat rose 2 MMT this month to 11.5 MMT for 2015, now 1 MMT above the USDA. South American soy estimates were unchanged this month at 58.5 MMT for ARG and 101.4 MMT for BRZ—both are about 1.5 MMT above the current USDA

Jan CBOT deliveries: soybean oil 216 contracts with next trade date 1/5/16.

 

Today’s charts show historical USDA December 1 corn and soybean stocks, since 1988, along with the average trade estimate for Tuesday’s report thrown in. The majority of analysts see 12/1 stocks slightly outpacing last year’s number at a an all-time record-high 11.237 billion bushels—a full 3.2 billion more than just three years ago. Soybean stocks are seen squeaking out a record as well (over 2006) on a 200 mbu rise from LY and a 720+ mbu rise from 2012.

 

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