Morning Grain Comments, 12/31/2015

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Reports of Mississippi River closings continue to “flood” in (sorry), with the latest shutdown coming on a 76-mile stretch of the river downstream from Chester, Illinois, and a couple of flour mills closing in IL as well. That’s increasing premiums for corn and beans on and around those worst-hit areas, but in the grand scheme of things it’s only providing another issue for the U.S. export campaign, which is struggling to keep pace against cheaper South American and global supplies. Beans rallied overnight but failed to even match yesterday’s session high, with plenty of resistance above on the charts—most are ready to say “good riddance” to 2015...

Jordan bought 100k tonnes of optional-origin wheat yesterday at $218/t C&F.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry reported corn planting progress as of December 30th at 78%, up from 77% a year ago, with beans at 87% versus 89% last year, and wheat harvest progress at 75% compared to 88% on this date in 2014.

South African corn prices more than doubled on the calendar year 2015 to finish out 2015 at a record 4,661 rand/tonne, or $298/tonne, as El Nino continues to exacerbate drought concerns following the weak ‘15 harvest.

Jan CBOT deliveries: soybean oil 686 contracts, next trade date 12/18/15.


Weekly total fuel ethanol production rose to 992,000 barrels per day on the week ending on Christmas Day, up from 973k bpd the previous week and 972k on the comparable week last year. It also takes cumulative ethanol output since September 1 to 967k bpd, up nearly 30k from last year’s pace and 16k bpd ahead of last year’s final number; the government is still looking for a slight year-to-year decline in corn (though not corn + milo) use for ethanol in 2015/16.


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