Morning Grain Comments, 12/30/2015

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

March beans did rise to fill the weekend gap just after midnight then immediately retreated; the grains are left on the high side this morning, though, despite seemingly all the fundamentals going against them. Any bullish traders left may be looking for some fund money to flow in into year-end and ease that massive short, while ethanol production numbers this morning do represent the strongest usage sector going in the grains right now.

South Korea’s KFA bought 50k tonnes of corn from South America in their tender closing yesterday, at $191/tonne C&F for June 30 arrival; the country’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp is seeking 50k tonnes of soybeans for February and June 2017 arrival today.


Argentine President Macri officially scrapped export quotas on corn and wheat yesterday, after eliminating corn and wheat export taxes and reducing the country’s steep export tariff on soybeans earlier this month.

Egypt’s Ag Ministry was quoted as saying today that the country “aims to produce” 80% of its wheat needs by 2018, as part of a larger plan to increase output of strategic crops and gain food security; that number is closer to 40% currently, with production in the 8.0-8.5 MMT range recently and total consumption at 18.5-19.5 MMT. Egypt’s imports have been rising steadily in the last three years, from 8.3 MMT in ‘12/13 to an estimated 11.5 MMT this year.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association said the state’s 43 refineries produced a record 4 billion gallons of ethanol in calendar 2015, up from last year’s 3.9 bln gal and around 27% of the country’s output.


Today’s chart shows winter wheat production averages since 2010, grouped by states/regions, to give an idea of how much output any weather issues may affect in any particular part of the country. Kansas is the clear central figure with the state’s crop averaging 22% of the national harvest since 2010, with the northern/western Plains states coming in second, though still behind KS despite the much larger area. TX and OK combine for just 13% of the U.S. total



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