Morning Grain Comments, 12/23/2015

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

It’s a cautiously positive commodity market overall for some reason today, with the grains taking a break from an ugly week thus far; Mato Grosso has seen scattered rains thus far but has a couple days of chances left.

Egypt’s GASC is looking for wheat for January 21-31 shipment this morning; they last bought 240k tonnes from France, Russia, and Romania for Dec 21- 31 on Nov 25th. Their lowest offers (sans freight) today interesting came from Argentina, with 60k cargoes offered just below $175 and $177/tonne.

Russia’s Phytosanitary head said the country could supply up 1 MMT of grain to China in 2016, following shipments of 550k tonnes of soybeans, corn, and rapeseed to China in 2015. Meanwhile, Syria bought 200k tonnes of Russian wheat in a tender last night, priced at $186/tonne C&F for January shipment.

South Korea’s NOFI is looking for up to 207k tonnes of corn and 69k tonnes of wheat for May-June-July arrival, all optional-origin, while the country’s corn processors (KOCOPIA) are seeking 55k tonnes of optional-origin corn for April arrival, and the Korean Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade Corp bought 120k tonnes of U.S. soybeans for arrival in 2016 and 2017. They will re-issue for beans next week since they had originally sought 170k tonnes, but rejected some offers due to a lack of qualified bids.

This afternoon’s USDA Hogs & Pigs Report is expected to show all U.S. hogs as of December 1 at 101.5% of last year, with breeding hogs seen at 100.8% of LY and hogs kept for marketing at 101.6% of last season.


Today’s chart is an update on the March corn seasonal, including the three and five-year averages and recent years;
the current CH6 has managed to trade in less than a 20-cent range in the last six-plus weeks (since the Nov USDA), and less than a 35-cent range since the Oct edition. Last year actually saw CH5 peak on 12/29 at $4.17/bu, before sinking through Jan and expiring very close to CZ6’s current level


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