Morning Grain Comments, 12/18/2015

Friday, December 18, 2015

Rains are still on the way for the driest areas of Mato Grosso for the first half of next week, but expected amounts have waned a bit, with dry maps past that as well—the precip event is becoming increasingly crucial.

South Korea’s MFG and FLC bought a combined 232k tonnes of corn, with 69k from either the U.S. or S.A., 42k from S.A., and the rest completely optional- origin; prices ranged from $182-184/tonne C&F for May-June arrival.

The European Commission cut their 2015 corn production estimate from 57.5 to 56.6 MMT this month (down from 77.9 MMT last season), with wheat output unchanged at 149.15 MMT (versus 148.7 MMT in 2014).

SovEcon sees Russian grain exports rising to 3.2-3.3 MMT in December thanks to a weaker rouble, up from 3 MMT in Nov, with wheat exports expected to hit 2.4-2.5 MMT, up from 2.0 MMT last month.

Private analysts Informa yesterday pegged 2015 U.S. corn yields at 170.0 bushels per acre, down a tenth of a bushel from their November estimate but above the USDA’s current 169.3 bpa; production at 13.725 bln bu is 71 mbu ahead of the government. Soybean yields at 48.3 bpa were even with the USDA but 0.4 bpa above Informa’s previous estimate, with production still 11 mbu below the USDA at 3.97 bln bu. For 2016 acreage, Informa cut their corn plantings estimate by 1.2 mln ac this month to 88.9 mln ac, still 465k above 2015 though 1.6 mln below initial USDA baseline indications; soybean plantings at 84.5 mln ac were down 740k from last month but still 1.6 mln ac above last year, and 2.5 mln ac above USDA baseline estimates.

This afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of December 1 at 101.0% of last year, with November placements at 95.8% of last year and Nov marketings at 102.7% of LY.


Weekly corn and soybean export sales were down sharply on the week to Dec 10; shipments were steady week-overweek in both commodities as well (corn at 19.5 million bushels, beans at 57.1 mbu), but both continued to lose ground to last year’s paces. Corn shipments now stand almost 120 mbu behind last year’s pace with bean exports over 70 mbu behind, through less than one third of the MY.


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