Morning Grain Comments, 12/15/2015

Tuesday, December 15, 2015


The grains were choppy but firmly range-bound overnight— it’s a waiting game at this point ahead of crush data this morning, but more importantly for the marketplace in general, the anticipated Fed meeting startingtoday and  expected to end with an interest rate increase tomorrow...

Japan is looking for 123k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 94k tonnes from the U.S. and 29k from Canada.

Syria has issued an international tender for 200k tonnes of soft milling wheat; they likely bought their last 200k tonnes (on Oct 27) from the Black Sea.

Algeria reportedly bought at least 800k tonnes of milling wheat last week, above the 500k that had been previously reported—the total transaction could have been for as much as 870k tonnes, while ARG was seen as a “possible” source. It was purchased at $195-197/tonne C&F for Feb-March delivery.

Russia’s Ag Min reported 103.4 MMT of grain (by net weight) harvested in 2015, above previous forecasts; they see 2016 output increasing further to 104 MMT, despite wheat falling from 61.2 MMT this year to 60.4 MMT in 2016.

November NOPA soybean crush is expected at 161.7 million bushels this morning, up from 158.9 mbu last month and a November record 161.2 mbu last year. Trade estimates range from 157.7-165.4 million bushels.

Today’s charts show price action for the last half of the month of December, for the most-traded March corn and Jan soybean contracts, since 1990. The span was a perennial winner for both contracts in the run-up to and start of the “ethanol era”, but action has turned southward as crops and carryouts have started to normalize and thrive since the summer of 2012. CH5 actually peaked on Dec 29 last year (at $4.17) before plunging back to close below $4 on NYE.

 

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