Morning Grain Comments, 12/14/2015

Monday, December 14, 2015

grain action is still pretty muted to open the week during a slow fundamental stretch; chances are good, though, that the grains could get caught up in outside market excitement this week with the FOMC on tap...

Taiwan millers bought 87k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat for Jan-Feb delivery.

Israeli private buyers tendered for up to 80k tonnes of corn and 20k tonnes of feed sorghum, all optional-origin, for March-April-May delivery.

Argentine President Macri said he will sign a decree (as promised) to eliminate corn and wheat export taxes and cut soybeans by 5%, from 35% to 30%.

Brazil¡¦s Abiove this morning pegged 2015/16 soybean production at 99.4 MMT, up from 98.6 MMT in October, with exports from the crop seen at 55.0 MMT, up from 53.8 MMT in Oct and 54.0 MMT last season.

Friday afternoon¡¦s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed net managed money gains across the complex, with corn up 14.7k net and beans up 21.6k net on the week ending last Tuesday (12/8), though both of those had daily trade estimates showing steady to slightly lower net moves for the week. Oil also added 22.4k net in that category. Meanwhile, producers and merchants dropped 21k net corn and 13.1k net beans, along with a ¡V31k net bean oil.

USDA early-release baseline numbers Friday put 2016 U.S. corn plantings at 90.5 million acres, up 2.1 mln from 2015, leading to higher production (13.9 bln bu) and steady carryout despite a slight regression in yields (168.1 bpa). Soy acreage is initially seen at 82.0 mln ac, down 1.2 mln from 2015, with yields down 1.6 bpa and production down about 200 bln bu; even with higher demand, carryout remains at a robust 421 mbu. All wheat acreage is 1.6 mln ac lower but production steady, with ¡¥16/17 carryout plentiful at 928 mbu.

November NOPA soy crush is expected to come in at 161.7 million bushels tomorrow, up from 158.9 mbu in Oct and edging out the previous Nov high crush of 161.2 mbu last year. Trade estimates range from 157.7-165.4 mbu.


The USDA’s first (un)official look at 2016 balance tables sees corn acreage rising for the first time in four years, up 2.1 mln ac from 2015 to 90.5 mln, with beans down slightly for the second straight year (-1.2 mln to 82.0 mln). That’s a bit more aggressive than Informa’s current corn acreage increase (they’re just over 90.0 mln ac), though Informa of course see bean plantings up sharply as well, with their total of the 8 major crops a full 4 mln acres above the USDA.



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