Morning Grain Comments, 12/11/2015

Friday, December 11, 2015


Wheat has done the best job of building on rallies month but remains below $5 regardless; soybeans are firmly range-bound this week but are trading higher this morning despite BRZ production optimism, both from a higher gov’t estimate and important rain chances coming mid-next week.

South Korea’s KFA bought 52,000 tonnes of S.A. meal for Aug 2016 delivery

Brazilian government supply agency Conab this morning raised their 2015/16 soybean production estimate even further, from 102.0 MMT in November to 102.5 MMT this month; corn output was also increased slightly this month, from 81.9 to 82.0 MMT, with ‘15/16 wheat down from 6.2 to 5.6 MMT. Soybean exports are pegged at 57.5 MMT, up from 55.0 MMT last month.

E.U. grain lobby Coceral raised their 2015/16 soft wheat production estimate from 148.2 MMT in September to 150.3 MMT this quarter—that would mark a record crop, above 148.5 MMT last year. Corn output was lowered from
59.5 MMT in Sept to 58.8 MMT, further below last year’s record 75.0 MMT; rapeseed production was raised slightly to 21.5 MMT, compared to 21.4 MMT in Sept and well below last year’s record 24.4 MMT harvest.

The European Union granted export licenses for 563k tonnes of soft wheat this week, down from the season-high 1 MMT last week; the cumulative total since July 1 stands at 10.3 MMT, down 22% from last year’s pace.

 

2015/16 soybean exports continued an interesting track, with sales rebounding to 53.4 million bushels this week to nearly double up the comparable week last year, and cut the cumulative sales deficit vs LY to 223 mbu. Meanwhile, actual shipments hit 60.0 mbu but that was only about twothirds the same week last year; cumulative shipments have lost over 100 mbu against last year’s pace over the last six weeks, and now stand 56 mbu behind the 2014/15 track.

 

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