The market is stronger ahead of today’s USDA reports, with the USD weaker this morning. Tuesday’s trade found strong pressure, especially from the soybean market, but wheat recovered from lows and settled only a 1-4 lower. CME wheat open interest lost about 40k contracts over the last 30 days, which could make moves more amplified in the near-term. The Brazilian wheat crop is estimated to fall 1.1 MMT from last year, as frost and excessive rains have damaged the crop. Black Sea FOB values are flat to weaker and carries are shrinking going out of April, only $2.50/MT currently. Domestic cash markets haven’t seen much movement, except for another round of interest in nearby 14 pro on the spot rail market this week. With the USD lower and Crude Oil steady, grains should be able to trade fundamentals. Look for a quiet day ahead of the report, but trade sentiment is a little more neutral than bearish this morning.
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