Morning Grain Comments, 12/09/2015

Wednesday, December 09, 2015


Soybeans started off strong with solid volume once again last night, but managed to limit the dip this time and recover to the high side this morning pre-USDA; trade ideas are at least a bit more neutral than bearish for this usage-centric report, and BRZ rains do need to come through next week.

Ukraine’s Ag Min raised their 2016 grain estimate from 60.5 to 61.0 MMT, due to favorable weather improving the country’s winter crop—they see 17% of the crop in poor condition, compared to 30% just a few weeks ago.

French customs data showed soft wheat exports outside the E.U. at 582k tonnes in October, down nearly 100k tonnes from Sept; exports since July 1 now stand at 2.7 MMT, down 1% versus the year-ago four-month pace. Meanwhile, FranceAgriMer left their 2015/16 French ending soft wheat stocks estimate unchanged this morning at 5.2 million tonnes, with exports outside the E.U. unchanged as well at 11.5 MMT, up from 11.4 MMT last season. Ending corn stocks were raised by half a million tonnes this month to 2.8 MMT due to reduced domestic and export usage in 2015/16.

A chief transportation executive in South Africa told Reuters yesterday that the country was preparing to import as much as 4 million tonnes of corn in 2016, due to continued drought; they had perennially been a net exporter of corn, averaging around 2 MMT of net exports in the five years prior to last season, when they imported and exported 600k tonnes each (per the USDA)

 

Today’s charts show December USDA corn and soybean carryout changes, since 1990, along with estimated (minor) changes for this morning’s edition. Corn stocks have fallen the in last two December reports, but those were an anomaly compared to previous years; carryout was steady to higher from 2008 through 2012, and in 8 of 9 years from 2004- 2012. Bean stocks have definitely favored the other side, higher in only 1 of the last 9 Dec reports and 2 of the last 16

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