Morning Grain Comments, 12/01/2015

Tuesday, December 01, 2015


Corn and beans have started out the week with a similar chart look to last week but look to be building on that momentum a bit better this time around; they have help from Chicago wheat which recovered in a big hurry from initial evening lows, citing production issues in AUS/UKR/RUS...

ABARES cut the official 2015/16 Australian wheat production estimate from 25.3 to 24.0 million tonnes this month, still up from 23.7 MMT in ‘14/15, but still well below the USDA’s current 26.0 MMT figure.

SovEcon sees Russia’s 2016 grain harvest at 100 MMT, versus 103.7 MMT in 2015; that estimate for 2015 is above the government’s 101.5 MMT figure.

Yesterday afternoon’s holiday-delayed Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds dropping over 28k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (11/24), compared to daily trade estimates indicating steady (!) fund activity on the week; that took the net fund short to nearly –110k net prior to yesterday’s trade. Most of the rest of the grain complex lost small net amounts there as well, save for bean oil which gained over 18k net on the week. Producers and merchants cut over 60k corn shorts for nearly a 40k net gain on the week there, with meal up near 25k and oil down over 17k net.

The national winter wheat crop rating rose two more points to 55% good/ excellent this week, now up eight points in the last five ratings weeks, though still below 58% on this comparable week last season.

The U.S. EPA yesterday set the 2016 domestic ethanol use requirement at 14.5 billion gallons, up from 14.0 bln in May and 14.05 bln for 2015; total 2016 renewable fuels requirements of 18.11 bln are up from 16.93 bln in ‘15.

Statistics Canada is expected to report all wheat production at 26.7 MMT in their final crop estimates for 2015/16; that would be up 2.5% from October’s 26.1 MMT estimate, but still down 9% from last year’s 29.4 MMT harvest.

 

image

 

Today’s chart shows cumulative corn export inspections as a percentage of the final yearly USDA total—or in the case of 2015/16, the current USDA estimate—through roughly one quarter of the marketing season, on or nearest the comparable 11/26 week-ending date. Weekly corn inspections sunk to less than 12 mbu for the second time this month, and cumulative inspections of 264 mbu are at less than 15% of the expected annual total, the slowest % pace on record...


Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

Market Intelligence Free Trial