Morning Grain Comments, 11/20/2015

Friday, November 20, 2015


Jan beans are once again flirting with that key $8.50/bu low; the market has yet to find a real weather concern early on for South America, still with no reason not to expect yet another massive major producer harvest.

Jordan has tendered again for up to 100k tonnes of wheat and 100k tonnes of barley for Feb-Mar, after cancelling several similar tenders in recent months.

South Korea’s MFG bought 55k tonnes of meal from ARG, BRZ, or China.

Tunisia bought 125k tonnes of soft wheat, 92k tonnes of durum wheat, and 50k tonnes of feed barley in an international tender yesterday, all optionalorigin, with the soft wheat bought at $203-205/tonne C&F for D-J-F.

FranceAgriMer reported France’s corn harvest at 97% as of Monday, up from 92% a week earlier, with soft wheat planting up 9% this week to 98% done.

The Baltic Dry Freight Index hit an all-time low (back through available data starting in 1985) at 504 points, down nearly 3% yesterday, down more than one-third in the last month, and well below summer highs at 1,200 points.

The International Grains Council yesterday cut their 2015/16 world corn production estimate by 3 million tonnes, to 967 MMT, while leaving world wheat output steady at 726 MMT. Global 2016/17 wheat acreage is seen declining by around 1%, due to dryness concerns in Ukraine in particular.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry put its first 2015/16 soybean planting estimate at a record 20.6 million hectares (50.9 mln acres), with their initial ‘15/16 wheat production estimate at 10-12 MMT (vs the USDA’s current 10.5 MMT). 

This afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of November 1 at 102.2% of last year, with October placements and marketings both seen at 96.0% of last year.

 

Soybean export sales rose for the second straight week this week, to just over 66 million bushels on the seven days ending Nov 12; that was 18 mbu above the previous week and a solid 48 mbu above a weak total from the comparable week last season. However, weekly shipments of 83.5 mbu looked strong but dropped cumulative exports just behind last year’s pace at 575.5 mbu—shipments will be going up against a 100+ mbu total from last year again next week..

 

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