Morning Grain Comments, 11/18/2015

Wednesday, November 18, 2015


It’s been a fairly positive week for corn and beans thus far, though the corn “rally” has lent depressed farmers well under a dime on the board thus far. The bulls could use a good old fashioned South American weather concern but just like recent seasons both there and in the U.S., forecasts have been decidedly non-threatening to potentially massive harvests...

Ukraine’s Ag Minister tweeted overnight that the country’s 2015 grain harvest could “optimistically” reach the 60 MMT mark, with wheat at 28.8 MMT corn at 22.4 MMT, and barley 8.5 MMT.

Russia’s Prime Minister expects grain exports to reach 35-40 MMT by 2020, compared to a nearly 30 MMT estimate for the current 2015/16 season.

France’s Farm Ministry today left their 2015 crop estimates mostly unchanged, with soft wheat output steady at 41.0 MMT this month, still up 9.3% from last year and 14% above the five-year average crop. Corn production of 13.15 MMT was up slightly from 13.1 MMT in October, down 27% from last year’s record harvest and over 15% below the 5YA.

Local analysts Safras & Mercado yesterday reported Brazilian soybean harvest at 56% planted as of Nov 13, up from 42% the week prior, but well behind the usual 68% planted by the second week in November.

Russian statistical agency Rosstat yesterday pegged the country’s grain reserves at 43.7 million tonnes as of November 1, up 1.4% from last year and down 0.1% from October 1.

 

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Today’s chart shows “harvest lows” for each December corn contract, or the low put in between the start of September and the middle of November; CZ5 continues to run off the chart as the Dec contract to suffer the longest into the month of Nov, though the 2013 contract did go on to squeak out a few more cents into early December. CZ2014 never stopped building momentum from October 1st all the way through expiration, going off the board just shy of $4/bu.


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