Morning Grain Comments, 11/17/2015

Tuesday, November 17, 2015


Yesterday afternoon’s reports; those corn and bean “rallies” still leave each contract just pocket change above last week’s fresh lows...

Japan is looking for 115k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 81k from the U.S. and 34k from Canada. South Korea rejected all offers in a tender for 35k tonnes of wheat for March-April shipment, while Jordan tendered for up to 100k tonnes of wheat and 100k barley for F-M-A.

UkrAgroConsult sees farmers increasing 2016 spring grain plantings in Ukraine, due to drought holding back winter grain planting; they cut their 2016 wheat production estimate by 8% this month to 17.5 million tonnes. Winter crop acreage is seen at its lowest level in more than ten years.

Yesterday afternoon’s holiday-delayed Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds dropping 73k net contracts on the week ending last Tuesday, for a 53k net short overall, while soybeans lost over 29k net there for a –49k net short overall—both those losses were once again way more than what daily trade estimates were indicating. The rest of the grains went –4 to –13k net in that category. Producers and merchants added 59k net long corn and +33.3k beans on the week, with the rest up +5 to +17k net there.

The U.S. corn harvest came in at 96% this week, up 3% from the previous week and ahead of 88% last year and the 94% five-year average; bean harvest was no longer reported, essentially wrapped up after 95% last week. Winter wheat ratings rose another point to 52% g/ex, now 1% above the average as well but still behind 60% on this date last year. Winter wheat plantings remained slightly behind LY and the 5YA at 94%, while emergence of the crop was a point ahead of both LY and the 5YA at 87% this time around.

October NOPA soybean crush came in at 158.9 million bushels yesterday morning, on the low end of trade estimates and below the average 161.0 mbu guess; it was still up from 126.7 mbu in September and 158.0 mbu last year.

 

Today’s charts are a checkup on how soybean demand is progressing so far in 2015/16. Soybean inspections hit almost
80 million bushels this week but that still lost out to the same week last year by almost 35 mbu; cumulative inspections are now 2.5% behind last year’s pace, but the USDA is looking for a 7% YTY export drop. Sep-Oct crush stands a solid 11% ahead of last year’s two-month pace, with the government now at a +1% YTY crush estimate.

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